Tool · desk
Points race calculator
In one line: put in the table numbers you can see — points, games played, recent form — and get the projected finish, the minimum wins-and-draws route to your target, and every step of the maths.
Every “will they make it?” argument is really two arithmetic questions: what does current form project to over the games left, and what is the cheapest combination of results that reaches the target? This tool answers both, shows the working line by line, and stops there. It does not model fixtures, injuries or luck — anything that claims to know those is selling you something.
How the maths works
Projection is one line: points + (games left × points per game). The minimum route is a small division: wins = gap ÷ 3 (rounded down), and the leftover one or two points become draws. Required rate is gap ÷ games left. That is the entire model — if a “predictor” hides its working, it is hiding the fact that there is no model.
Two folklore numbers deserve honesty: the 40-point safety line is a habit, not a rule — recent seasons have seen safety secured well below it; and a title-winning total moves with how strong the top of the table is. Use the custom target and read the required rate, not the headline number.
Why every place in the table is worth points
The run-in maths changes meaning at both ends of the table because the money does: final position decides prize-money distribution, and the gaps between places are millions apart. The desk’s explainer on how prize money actually works shows what a single place is worth — and Financial Fair Play, explained shows why those numbers govern what clubs can spend next.
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